QUOTE (Hags888 @ November 06, 2007 10:50 pm)
Well, I'd like to see what the perfect "average" draw is for any character from a statistical analysis.

Well, for one thing, since the distribution of talents, major basic cards, and minor basic cards is approximately even (especially when looking at small numbers), the "average" first eight cards would include 3 talents, 3 majors, and 2 minors -- definitely not 4 minors as you've given to Obi.
QUOTE (Hags888 @ November 06, 2007 10:50 pm)
I was merely choosing mostly major cards and some minor cards and mixing up the choices randomly (but sure to include two power attacks). 

This is part of the problem right there. Of Obi's talent cards, only 5 (2x FC 3x JA) are power attacks; that's fewer than half of them. In other decks (e.g. Anakin's has only 4), that percentage is lower. Thus, calling 2 power attacks in the first eight cards (1/3 of the deck) "average" is a bit optimistic.
QUOTE (Hags888 @ November 06, 2007 10:50 pm)
Vader's deck is certainly capable of winning with certain conditions, but overall and in general, I maintain that he is ineffective.

I'm not really disagreeing with you there; as you point out, his record in EDOL is rather poor. I will say, though, that I would expect his records against Anakin, Boba, and most particularly Dooku would even out some given more Duels. This is not to say I think he would have an edge against any of them, but I do think he isn't as bad against those three as the record indicates. Also, it's interesting to note that Vader is (or was) one of the "broken" randoms -- he was selected "at random" at a rate 20% less than ten other characters (and Boba was selected 20% more). On any map but the carbon-freezing chamber, I find Vader-Dooku a very sweepable matchup, and though they aren't in any logfiles, I can recall beating adamgetz, a player I consider quite competent, as Vader against his Dooku on the Kamino Platform a couple times. And I've won that matchup countless times outside Vassal. Again on any map but the carbon-freezing chamber, I'd pick Vader over Yoda in a tiebreaker (his one win recorded in EDOL in this matchup was mine).
QUOTE (Hags888 @ November 06, 2007 10:50 pm)
It seems we disagree slightly on what his "path to victory" is

Yes.
QUOTE (Hags888 @ November 06, 2007 10:50 pm)
but even so, whatever paths you pick and choose out of his cards, they aren't supported well enough.

Here's where I disagree, though it might be semantics in what we each consider "well enough." I only consider Vader hopeless against three decks. Does that mean I expect to win against the other eight? No (that was in another thread, but I'm not an experienced enough forum user to post a link). But it means I have a game plan going into the Duel to execute, or in DT! terms there's a Path to Victory I can follow.
QUOTE (Hags888 @ November 06, 2007 10:50 pm)
And that is crux of the issue as to why his deck sucks.

Personally, from a design standpoint, I think the Emperor's is far worse (by "sucks" are you referring to the deck or its performance?). Vader's deck allows strategy, the Emperor's none: you either draw the cards or you don't. Of course, there's still the positioning aspect, but from a deck management standpoint playing as the Emperor doesn't involve any strategic planning.
QUOTE (Hags888 @ November 06, 2007 10:50 pm)
That's a combined record of 18-40, or a 0.310 winning percentage.  He wins less than 1/3 of the time!

Yes... and he wins more than 30% of the time (and your "fuzzy math" skills are showing -- the columns you quote have 20 wins for him )! This is far closer to "balanced" than Obi-wan is, who loses less than 25% of the time.
QUOTE (Hags888 @ November 06, 2007 10:50 pm)
So, I'm just not seeing how Vader has any kind of chance against any of the non-crappy decks.

That's ok, but it's not gonna stop me from seeing the opportunities. At this point I'll also refer you to week 3 July logfiles, where you can find a file uploaded by scotthagarty indicating Vader swept Mace.

In Italy for thirty years under the Borgias they had warfare, terror, murder, bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, and the Renaissance. In Switzerland they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace. And what did that produce? The cuckoo-clock.
- Orson Welles